Introduction: The ways of our errors -- Why Big Brown was a bad bet: know your reference class -- Why Steinbrenner screamed in vain: outcome = skill + luck -- The grand ah-whoom: how little changes can make a big difference -- Bees, beavers, and beer: why the whole is greater than the parts -- I'll see it when I believe it: transcend your tunnel vision -- What it depends on: the importance of context over content -- The expert squeeze: why computers and collectives are taking over -- The power of the situation -- What should I do differently tomorrow.